RUBIS: Q1 2023 Trading update

Paris, 4 May 2023, 17:45 CET

Q1 2023 TRADING UPDATE

• Group revenue up 18% in the context of decreasing oil price.
• Energy Distribution:
  • strong gross margin development (+29% yoy, +10% LFL[1]) in Retail & Marketing demonstrating the agility of the business model;
  • stable volume in Retail & Marketing after a record Q1 2022.
• Renewable Electricity Production: Further development of the assets in operation (+3% vs
  end-22) and pipeline (+6% vs end-22).

Q1 2023 Highlights

• Energy Distribution[2]:
  • Retail & Marketing:
    • revamp of the retail network and portfolio optimisation in Kenya bearing fruit (+19% retail volume in Kenya),
    • early-stage bitumen operations in South Africa delivering rapid growth, launch of Gabon and Liberia operations (2021) are also promising;
  • Support & Services:
    • improved shipping margin underpinned by better efficiency of the fleet supported by recent investment in vessels (delivery of a new bitumen vessel) and sound trading volume in the Caribbean region and in Africa,
    • acquisition of a new LPG vessel (previously time chartered) in the Caribbean.
• Renewable Electricity Production[3]:
  • Secured portfolio up 8% vs Dec-2022 at 542 MWp;
  • Pipeline up 6% vs Dec-2022 at 3.7 GWp.

Q1 2023 Group sales came in at €1,740m representing a +18% increase yoy, in the context of oil prices down 3% (-7% in €)[4]. This performance was supported by the agility of each of the affiliates, reactively adjusting margins in the context of slower volume growth.

Sales breakdown by segment and region is presented in the table below.

The Energy Distribution business line encompasses two activities: Retail & Marketing and Support & Services.

Retail & Marketing

The first quarter of 2023 has seen stable volume, after a strong Q1 2022. When excluding exceptional items and FX effects[5], margins grew at a dynamic pace (+10%), and still in positive territory (+2%) when taking into account FX potential risk in Kenya. Despite the soft growth in volume, affiliates managed to navigate the supply price volatility and seize relevant opportunities to grow margins.

VOLUME SOLD AND GROSS MARGIN BY PRODUCT IN Q1

LPG was overall slightly increasing (+1%) in Q1 2023 vs Q1 2022. Rising volume in the bulk business and autogas was partially offset by a decrease in the packed products.

On the fuel side:

• retail (service stations, representing 59% of fuel margin) volume overall continued to grow at a steady pace (+2% yoy) and gross margins increased faster (+26% excl. exceptional elements), driven by:
  • Kenya: the service stations revamping programme is bearing fruit and continues to add more sites (estimated achievement of the programme ~90%), generating a 19% growth in retail volume,
  • Caribbean region: volume grew by 4% yoy excluding Haiti, and gross margins by 23%,
  • Haiti: volume and margins in service stations decreased significantly yoy (-41% and -40% respectively), representing, however, a marginal share of overall performance (4% of the segment's overall gross margin contribution);

• as regards Commercial & Industrial customers (C&I) representing 22% of fuel margin, volume decreased (-11%) but gross margins remained stable underpinned by:
  • Kenya, where C&I volume decreased by 27% due to the floods caused by the rainy season, making the access to off-grid areas difficult,
  • Eastern Africa (outside Kenya) showed strong growth (all of them above +25% in volume), illustrating their dynamism and the strong potential of the region,
  • Haiti, where volume decreased by 50% due to the rationing of sales and the overall safety situation;
• growth was particularly strong (+27%) in the aviation segment (representing 13% of fuel margin), mainly in Kenya and in the Caribbean, driven by the resumption of aviation activities in Kenya, combined with the tourism season. Gross margins grew at a high pace (+12%), following the same trend as volume.

The bitumen volume was down 11% yoy. Nigeria saw a significant decrease in volume, on the back of a strong Q1 2022, and a slow take up after the elections. Start of activity in South Africa was very dynamic, volume was multiplied by 7, reaching a level close to Senegal or Togo after only one year of activity. Gabon and Liberia also delivered promising growth.

The table below provides volume and gross margin split by region for Q1.

VOLUME SOLD AND GROSS MARGIN BY REGION IN Q1

Adjusted unit margin came in at 144€/m3, up 11% vs Q1 2022.

Looking at the split by region, key take-aways are:

• Europe: volume decreased by 2%, penalised by LPG distribution, negatively impacted by the warm winter in Europe and strikes in France;
• Caribbean: volume is down 4%, penalised by Haiti (up 5% excl. Haiti). Eastern Caribbean performed particularly well on all products, boosted by Guyana dynamics. This country, with a 2022 GDP growth estimated at 62%[8], provides very strong growth potential;
• Africa: volume increased by 4%, supported by double-digit growth in service stations and aviation customers. Margins have grown, underpinned by the retail segment (service stations).

Support & Services 

The Support & Services operations recorded total revenue of €300 million (+51%) for the Q1 2023 period.

Both volume (+48%) and margins (+64%) have improved in the shipping and supply businesses this quarter, benefiting from one new fully owned bitumen vessel delivered at the beginning of February 2023 (Bitu River). Shipping activity delivered strong performance in the Caribbean region, as well as the bitumen supply activity.

Rubis has also made the acquisition of an LPG vessel in February 2023 in the Caribbean region (St James LG). This vessel was previously time chartered.

The SARA refinery and logistics operations present specific business models with stable earnings profile.

RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION

Since the end of 2022, the level of assets in operation have grown by 3% to reach 394 MWp at the end of March 2023. The secured portfolio has increased by 39 MWp to 542 MWp (+8%) during the first quarter and the pipeline is up 176 MWp at 3.7 GWp (+6%).

Over the first quarter of 2023, one new project was commissioned, and two new projects were awarded, representing ~40 MWp.

The pipeline was fed with 10 new projects over the quarter. International expansion is expected to start over Q2 2023.

Storage revenues of the Rubis Terminal JV (accounted for under the equity method) recorded robust growth of 16% (revenue: €64 million) over the period, driven by chemicals (+15%) and fuels (+10%). The strikes in France at the refineries generated precautionary stockpiling, resulting in a sharp increase in depot outflows (+6%) and associated revenues (+10%). The ARA zone recorded a 25% increase in chemical revenues with an occupancy rate close to 100%, driven by import flows from the US zone. The agri-food sector continued to enjoy strong momentum with revenues up 29%.

Looking at the product mix, in terms of revenue contribution, the share of non-fuel products and strategic reserves stood at 72% at the end of March 2023, 3 percentage points higher than December 2022.

The solid beginning of 2023 illustrates the relevance of the model and its growth drivers. The Group is confident that 2023 will be another year of improving net income Group share vs 2022 (adjusted for goodwill impairment) while dividend will remain in line with dividend policy.

Looking at each of the products and activities, Rubis is expecting:

• LPG activities to continue delivering sustainable margins, most of the growth being driven by the emerging countries where this energy is promoted as a cleaner alternative to replace wood or charcoal for heating and cooking;
• fuel activities to develop in Eastern Africa and the Caribbean region, driven by the revamp of service stations and countries with high potential growth (Guyana and Suriname);
• bitumen activities to increase, underpinned by the need for infrastructure in Western Africa;
• shipping and supply activities to continue their growth, with the optimisation of the fleet and the acquisition of new vessels;
• Renewable Electricity Production to pursue its development, with further development in France and the entrance in new markets outside France (Spain, Italy).

These developments will continue to be accomplished with a high level of responsibility and bearing in mind that Rubis has a key role to play in the access to energy while contributing to the fight against climate change. To do so, the main targets set in the context of the Think Tomorrow 2022-2025 CSR Roadmap are:

• environment:
  • scopes 1 and 2[9]: -30% CO2 emissions by 2030,
  • scope 3A9: -20% CO2 emissions by 2030 (outsourced transportation i.e., 45% of scope 3A);
• social: 30% women on average in Management Committees of the Energy Distribution business line by 2025;
• ethics: 100% of employees made aware of ethics and anti-corruption rules by end 2023.

For 2023, the Group will focus its efforts on several CSR-related projects, the major ones being the deepening of the assessment of its operations impact on biodiversity and the definition of a sustainable procurement framework.

Conference call for investors and analysts

Date: Thursday 4 May 2023, 18:00-19:00 CET

Speakers: Bruno Krief, CFO, Clémence Mignot-Dupeyrot, Head of IR

Link to register: https://register.vevent.com/register/BI113e47b75b284add9f1b17b29a883f06

Upcoming events

Annual Shareholders’ Meeting: 8 June 2023, 14:00 CET

Dividend ex-date and listing of ex-dividend shares: 13 June 2023

Payment of cash dividend: 15 June 2023

2023 Half-year results: 7 September 2023 (after market close)

2023 Q3 & 9M market update: 7 November 2023

[1] LFL: Like-for-like i.e., excluding exceptional items and FX effects.

[2] Previously called Rubis énergie.

[3] Business line including Rubis Photosol and participation in HDF Energy.

[4] Source: Platts ULSD FOB BARGE ROTTERDAM $/T.

[5] Exceptional items and FX effects include: sums recovered after the settlement of the agreement with the Government in Madagascar related to H2 2022, and FX effects in Nigeria. Total impact -€30m for Q1 2021, +€5m for Q1 2022.

[6] Adjusted for exceptional items and FX effects.

[7] Adjusted for exceptional items and FX effects.

[8] Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database: April 2023 – GDP growth for 2023 estimated +37% and 2024 +45%.

[9] Rubis Énergie constant scope – baseline 2019.